Hi ,
Happy Halloween and Happy Diwali! Over and over in our Budget analysis, we found ourselves writing the same thing: it's good that they tried, but experts agree this just isn't enough. Every Budget is a choice whether to engage with the reality of the crises we’re in or to stick within what our political system considers reasonable and, within that frame, we welcome the progress it does make on investing in our future. But when faced with the reality of the UK's crises, the Budget failed to meet the challenges.
The big headline changes in this Budget were around the fiscal rules that govern investment, raising taxes, and increasing spending on some public services, particularly for the NHS and schools. Although welcome, in both cases, the amounts announced are less than experts believe is necessary to make a real difference. For other public services, the funding increases are even less than needed.
How much of a difference will this Budget make to inequality? Distributional analysis indicates this Budget will redistribute some wealth from the richest to the rest of us, as long as public services really do improve (which is not a certainty) and as long as the employer tax changes aren't passed on to workers. The Budget recommitted to taxing non-doms and private school VAT, two manifesto pledges that had come into question after furious lobbying, and raised £2.5bn from capital gains tax and £2bn from inheritance tax, two things that will overwhelmingly affect the richest.
Here, though, they fumbled the bag: the capital gains tax increase was much less than expected or needed, leaving over £10bn on the table, and no other measures to tax the rich were attempted. When Tax Justice UK believe £60bn can be raised by taxing the rich, choosing to go ahead with £4.3bn of welfare cuts for people with disabilities and chronic illnesses feels indefensible. |